Let’s keep 2022 in context. We are experiencing a bear market (decline of 20% off recent high), which historically occurs every 3.5 years. Over the past 15 years, government intervention has disrupted the normal frequency. History teaches us the economy is cyclical; bear markets are a natural part of the cycle.
History teaches us that bull market gains are 11x greater than bear market losses. Since 1929, the average bull market lasts 32 months and returns roughly 400%. In contrast, the average bear market lasts 14 months and drops an average of 36%.
Volatility and risk are fundamental to investing; they are the price we pay for returns on capital. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 averages a 14% pullback annually – and a drop of 20% or more every four years.
Fast Fact: Traditionally, every one percentage point increase in mortgage rates reduces property sales by 10%. Will the same hold true in the current cycle?
Soaring inflation and gasoline prices have everyone on edge. Unlike the princess, we understand. An insightful client recently told us: “I watch oil and gas prices because they affect everybody. It doesn’t matter if you drive a car or a boat or a plane – they all need gas.” Here are three quick thoughts on…
Elon Musk, carnival barker or the next Thomas Edison? Our vote – the next Thomas Edison, with a dash of Henry Ford, John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie. Consider his resume – Founder, CEO and product architect of Telsa, Inc., which produces fantastic electric vehicles. Founder, CEO and chief engineer of SpaceX, a space exploration…
Financial planning is an integral tool to helping you achieve your goals. In an ideal situation, what does your life look like in the future? What are your aspirations for your children and your grandchildren? What keeps you up at night?\ Math: Where do you stand? Our plans use Monte Carlo simulations to assess the…
One of our (Shannon and Casey) favorite indicators, VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index. Consistent with its name, the VIX is a measure of volatility, or how fast prices change. Sometimes called the fear gauge, the VIX “is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day…
“If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.” – Adam Smith (pseudonym for George Goodman), The Money Game. Here at Gracestone, we know who we are. Three main principles guide our investment philosophy. First, we believe in building portfolios that both capture opportunity and weather downturns. Second, we…
Who votes on setting rates? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), comprised of the board of governors (seven), the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four seats that rotate amongst the remaining Fed banks. There are currently five open spots on the board of governors and vacancies at two Fed banks….